Commercial Measure Details

Nearly 40 individual commercial-sector measure bundles are included. These measures were bundled for analytical and reporting convenience and should not dictate the way measures are utilized for programmatic implementation. The table below shows these commercial sector measure bundles with their associated end-uses.

Commercial Measure Bundles

 *Dedicated Outdoor Air System

Major and New Commercial Measures

The largest end-use contributor to savings potential in the commercial sector is heating, ventilating and air-conditioning (HVAC) when considering the total Achievable Technical potential over the 20-year planning horizon. However, a significant portion of this potential is available only in the higher cost bins (e.g., greater than $50/MWh). Note that there is some HVAC potential throughout a wide range of the cost bins, which reflects the diversity of HVAC systems and associated energy efficiency measures in the commercial sector.

One of the largest HVAC measures, and new for the 2021 Plan, is stand-alone fans with 139 average megawatts of achievable technical potential. Fan savings can be achieved through more efficient constant speed fans, more efficient variable speed fans, converting from a constant speed to variable speed application, or using a variable speed fan for rightsizing (aka “trim”). Window improvements are also new in the 2021 plan and reveal a potential of 47 average megawatts for thin triple-pane windows, and 65 average megawatts for secondary glazing systems and window films. However, much of the window potential is very expensive and only some of it is cost-effective (see Estimating Energy Efficiency Potential section). 

Another new commercial HVAC measure in the 2021 Plan is the Very High Efficiency Dedicated Outdoor Air System (VHE-DOAS). This measure includes a variable refrigerant flow (VRF) system, a highly efficient heat recovery ventilator (HRV) coupled with the DOAS. NEEA conducted research that demonstrated the energy savings benefits and costs of this new system.

Other HVAC measures include efficient heat pumps, ductless heat pumps, chillers, packaged terminal heat pumps, unitary air conditioners, circulation pumps, and a couple of controls measures.

The second largest measure bundle in the commercial sector is lighting. While there is a wide range on costs by measure, the weighted average cost of the lighting potential is available at less than $40 per megawatt-hour. At that price level, it makes up almost half of the commercial sector potential. This potential is largely driven by low-cost LEDs, which allow for highly efficient bulbs and fixture combinations.

The lighting end-use category is composed of measure bundles targeted at common applications in both interior and exterior spaces. It has been about ten years since the entrance of solid-state lighting in the marketplace. In the early years just a few applications, like roadway or refrigerator case lighting, were viable as cost-effective conservation measures. High-efficiency LED technology now exists for nearly all applications from outdoor lighting to all forms of indoor lighting, except for a few highly specialized functions. While there are few new measures in lighting, increases in the cost and performance of LED lighting along with the development of new form factors have increased the remaining conservation potential. In addition to higher performance at lower cost, significant technological improvements since the Seventh Power Plan have come in the form of color control, glare, and other photometrics, as well as increased sophistication and lower costs for adaptive lighting controls.

The adoption of LED lighting has generally been swift. LEDs make up over 80 percent of sales for new and replacement lighting in many outdoor lighting applications for example. However, in other markets, like the linear fluorescent tubes and fixtures which comprise about 60 percent of all commercial lighting fixtures, adoption of LED technology has been slower. Accordingly, much of the remaining conservation potential available is from applications where LED lighting adoption has been slowest or where newer technology has increased the efficacy of lighting or decreased the cost of conversion to LED and modern adaptive control systems.

A third major new category of measures is commercial refrigeration with an achievable technical potential of 235 average megawatts. Past plans have also had commercial refrigeration measures, but a significant new research effort conducted by Bonneville produced data and information to define numerous additional refrigeration measures, primarily for grocery stores and big box retail. Individual measures include adding doors to open display cases, automatic door closers, strip curtains, night curtains, liquid suction heat exchangers, and many more (approximately 40 unique refrigeration measures). 

Clean water pumps are also new to the 2021 Plan and contribute 93 average megawatts to the achievable technical potential. The savings estimates are based on research and analysis conducted by NEEA, the RTF, and DOE for more efficient pumps and variable speed applications. 

Commercial cooking equipment, heat pump water heaters, compressed air systems, embedded data centers, engine block heater controls round out the measures analyzed for the commercial sector supply curves.

Commercial Measures Not Included in the 2021 Plan

There are additional conservation measures that were considered but not included in the 2021 Plan due to limited data or resources. There are likely cost-effective savings available from measures that were not included in the Plan and they should not be excluded from program consideration in utility programs. A few examples of measures:

• Ultra-low energy building
• Commercial Building Weatherization (e.g., School)
• Drain water heat recovery
• Engine generator block heaters
• Evaporative cooling

It is also possible that energy efficiency could be estimated and achieved using a whole building approach (e.g. through energy use intensity (EUI) values and targets). This Plan recommends that a regional EUI data set be developed for use in program implementation.