Commercial EE Methodology

The general methodology for all energy efficiency measures can be found here. The sections below provide an overview specific to the commercial sector

Overview of Methods for Commercial Sector

For the commercial sector measures, the unit of measure is a function of the measure type. Most measures apply to a fraction of the building floor area in a building type. For some measures, especially HVAC-related measures, the space heating fuel type is important. Some measures, like lighting, apply across all building types while others such as pre-rinse spray valves apply only to facilities with commercial kitchens.

For every measure or practice analyzed, the major methodological steps to go through are: establish number of units, set baseline conditions, apply measure applicability and measure achievability factors.

Physical Units for Commercial

The conservation supply curves are developed primarily by identifying savings and cost per unit and estimating the number of applicable and achievable units for which the measure can be deployed. In the commercial sector analysis, the applicable unit estimates are based on the existing building floor area by building type and forecast of future new building growth from the Council’s Demand Forecasting Model. The floor space unit data by state are contained in the Excel workbook entitled “2021P Forecast.xls.” 

For new buildings, the estimate of available new building stock is taken from the Council’s baseline forecast for annual floor area additions by building type. Similarly, for equipment replacement measures the annual stock available is taken from estimates of the turnover rate of the equipment in question. For retrofit measures, the annual stock availability is a fraction of the estimated stock remaining at the end of the forecast period. These are incorporated into the individual supply curve workbooks as applicable. In addition, much of these data are in the “Com_Master.xls” workbook.

For some measures, the applicable units are based on other metrics such population and forecasted population growth. The table below shows examples of measure bundles and their corresponding unit savings basis and associated growth forecast.

Commercial Measure Unit Savings Basis

Commercial Baseline Characteristics

Baseline conditions are estimated from current conditions for existing buildings and systems. Estimates of current conditions and characteristics of the building stock come from several sources. The primary sources are the 2014 and 2019 Commercial Building Stock Assessments (CBSA). Other key sources include the market research provided by the Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance (NEEA) or the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA), selected studies from utilities, Energy Trust of Oregon, US Department of Energy, various National Laboratories, and other sources. The baseline assumptions used for codes and standards in the 2021 Plan are those that were adopted by the end of 2019. Data, links, and source information for baseline conditions can be found within the corresponding measure workbooks.

Baseline lighting systems are estimated from a combination of sources. The initial results of the 2019 CBSA provided the mix of lighting systems types in common use by building type and lighting applications for the stock of existing buildings. There are five indoor fixture application types modeled each with three separate baseline lamp technologies and corresponding lighting power densities for each of the fifteen combinations. A similar set of baselines characteristics is used for exterior lighting also based on CBSA. Data from CBSA and utility programs were used to estimate the baseline saturation of various lighting control strategies. The baseline for roadway lighting was taken from the 2019 Outdoor Lighting Stock Assessment (OLSA) conducted by Bonneville. Significant penetration of LED lamps and fixtures has reduced existing building lighting power densities significantly since the Seventh Power Plan. Lighting hours of operation, another key input to savings estimates, were based on RTF analysis of data from several recent studies US studies. Baselines for new building lighting characteristics are primarily based on minimum code requirements. A recent NEEA-sponsored study of new buildings in Oregon that covered four building types were also used to estimate new building lighting characteristics. NEEA and Bonneville sales data were used to inform the baseline penetration of LED technology in new and replacement markets for lamps.

Most lighting conservation measures are new, remodel, or replace on burnout situations where current practice baselines are used. To establish current practice baselines, CBSA lighting characteristics were adjusted to reflect applicable federal lighting standards and applicable state codes and standards. For example, state building codes have been recently updated in Washington (effective 2021), Oregon (effective 2020), Idaho (effective 2021), and Montana (effective 2021). These updates include lower lighting power density allowances and more applications of lighting controls in new buildings and many remodel situations.

The commercial HVAC measures primarily utilized the 2014 CBSA for baseline characteristics. For example, the amount of floor area (square feet) heated and cooled by heat pumps was used for the heat pump upgrade measure. Similarly, CBSA 2014 data sets for packaged terminal air conditioners (PTAC) and heat pumps (PTHP), chillers, unitary AC, and rooftop units were used to define the applicable floor area for those corresponding system types. The RCP and utility program evaluation data were used to identify saturation levels.

Other measures such as pumps and fans utilized a current practice baseline informed by regional shipment data. National shipment data were available from the U.S. Department of Energy (US DOE) and regional shipment data were derived from the national data set using the ration of national to regional floor area by building type.   

The Council also estimates energy savings potential from smaller data centers embedded in many commercial office, retail, school and other buildings[1]. The 2021 Plan identifies savings from efficient computer servers and power supplies along with associated HVAC savings. Baseline characteristics are estimated from analysis of server models conducted for a new ENERGY STAR specification created in 2018.

Commercial Measure Applicability and Achievability

There are hundreds of applicability assumptions in the commercial sector conservation assessment. Many of the applicability assumptions by measure appear in the Com_Master workbook. The baseline saturation (percent) is provided in tab/worksheet “BASE”, the applicability factors (percent) in the tab/worksheet “APPLIC” and final applicability (1-BASE)*APPLIC is provided on tab “APPLIC”. For example if the baseline saturation of a measure is 10% and it only applies to 50% of the regional commercial building floor area, the final applicability would be (100%-10%)*50% = 45% For some measures, applicability factors reside in the measure workbook.

The measure achievability factors are contained in the Com_Master workbook, tab “ACHIEV”. The overall ramp rates are in the “RAMP” worksheet and pulled into the ACHIEV worksheet and aligned with specific measures and associated MAX levels. The individual measure workbooks then pull the ramp rates and MAX achievability rates from the ACHIEV worksheet. 

Guide to Commercial Workbooks

The table below provides a crosswalk between the measures included in the Council’s assessment of regional conservation potential in the commercial sector and the name of the individual workbooks. The most recent versions of these workbooks are posted on the Council’s website and are available for downloading. Note that some of the workbooks utilized CBSA 2019 (designated with "C-19"), the remainder were based on data from CBSA 2014. Following the 2021 Plan release, additional measure files will be posted that utilize the 2019 CBSA.

Commercial Sector Supply Curve Input Workbooks

Note: Files designated with “C-19” have been updated with CBSA 2019 data.

All the individual measure files are linked to the “Com_Master_2021P.xls” file. This file contains the complete measure list, commercial building characteristics, baseline data, applicability factors, and ramp rates (achievability rates). The reference data in Com_Master are primarily in matrices by measure bundle and building type. The primary reference data in the Com_Master file are listed and described in the table below.

Reference Data in Com_Master Workbook

[1] Embedded data centers exclude savings from large enterprise data centers where the primary function of the structure is data warehousing and management. Forecast energy savings improvements in large data centers are taken onto account in the Council load forecast for large data centers.